Average sales prices for newly constructed apartments in Japan’s Kansai region were down 1.2% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of year-on-year declines.

In contrast, supply increased year-on-year in September by 10.1% to 1,332 units, the second consecutive month of year-on-year increase. The supply situation is the opposite of what is occurring in the greater Tokyo region, where suppliers have been pulling back on supply and where supply of newly constructed units has fallen year-on-year for the past two months.

However, as we’ve seen throughout the year, inventory of new condominiums in Kansai remains below the level needed to meet buyer demand for the foreseeable future. Combined with demand-side pressure, low supply is likely to keep upward pressure on prices, even considering the year-on-year price declines we saw in August and September. Also, macroeconomic factors, especially Japan’s ultra-low interest rate environment and the weak yen are continuing to sustain strong demand.

Here are the key highlights from the REEI’s report for September 2022:

Supply is up but is it enough?

In 2021, the supply of newly constructed condominiums released for sale in the Kansai region increased 24.7% year-on-year to 18,951 units. This means that supply slightly surpassed the number (18,042) released in 2019, prior to the start of the pandemic.

The Real Estate Economic Research Institute (REEI) forecasts that this year, about 18,500 newly constructed condominium units will be released for sale in 2022, which would also put this year’s supply numbers above 2019 levels.

Here is the supply situation as of the end of September:

If we drill down to the city and prefecture level, we see that year-0n-year supply decreased in three of the top five markets (Osaka City, Osaka prefecture and Kobe).

Notably in the city of Osaka, the biggest sub-market in the Kansai region, supply fell 1.8% year-on-year, while average sales prices were up 12.2% year-on-year and up 16.6% versus August. Buyers in Osaka city include both investors looking for small investment units and those looking to buy for their own use, especially couples and families. The supply of suitable units near major stations is especially tight, which is one key reason we see prices rising in Osaka.

Suitable land for development in Osaka city remains scarce, which has affected the ability of developers to bring new condominiums to market. So even though the headline numbers show that supply is up in the Kansai region as a whole, supply in Osaka city, Osaka prefecture and Kobe remain low.

Contract rate

The contract rate for the Kansai region as a whole came in at 71.5%, above the 70% mark that is the line between a seller’s market and a buyer’s market. This is up 12.1 points year-on-year but down 5.5 points compared to August.

The contract rate is the number of units contracted for sale divided by the number of units offered for sale. Although the contract rate for the region as a whole dropped fell under 70%, note the very strong contract rates in the city of Osaka, Kobe, Kyoto city, Kyoto prefecture and Nara prefecture.

However, Osaka prefecture and Wakayama prefecture saw very low contract rates, with many newly constructed units not being sold.

Average Sales Price of an Apartment in Kansai – By City & Prefecture in June

Here is the breakdown of average sales prices by area for September 2022 compared to August 2022 and year-on-year.

Average Sales Price by Square Meter of an Apartment in Kansai – By City & Prefecture in September

Here is the breakdown of average sales prices by square meter by area for September 2022 compared to August 2022 and year-on-year.

Sources:

• REEI, Kansai New Condominium Market Trends Report, September 2022 (PDF in Japanese)
• REEI, Kansai New Condominium Market Report, August 2022 (PDF in Japanese)
• REEI, Kansai New Condominium Market Report, September 2021 (PDF in Japanese)

Photo credit: Kobe via iStockNicolasMcComber

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