The average sales price of a newly constructed apartment in the greater Tokyo region was ¥62,910,000 ($495,000 USD) in April. This was a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% and a decrease of 3.5% compared to March.
The average sales price per square meter was ¥1,095,000 ($8,908 USD), up 15.5% year-on-year and the second consecutive month of year-on-year increases.
April was the first month in four months that both the average sales price and average sales price per square meter fell year-on-year.
One of the key takeaways from the April report is that the supply of new condominiums released for sale in last month was up 16.1% year-on-year to 2,426 units.
This was a seemingly big jump but should be seen in context of the longer term undersupply trend that started in 2019 (before the start of the pandemic). In anticipation of the knock-on effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, developers released in excess of 36,000 units for sale in greater Tokyo every year from at least FY2015 to FY2018.
In the last fiscal year (April 2021 to March 2022), supply jumped 13.2% compared to the April 2020 to March 2021 period, surpassing even FY2019, the last period which can be considered pre-pandemic. That is good news from a buyer’s perspective in that there is more inventory to choose from. However, in the bigger picture, the FY2021 annual total of 32,872 units is still 11.1% below the FY2015 to FY2018 annual average of 37,017 units.
Condominium developers in Japan are facing a severe shortage of labor and an increase in raw material prices, as well as competition for developable land in central locations. Traditionally, developers have also been very careful about oversupplying the market because of the fear of depressing prices.
The pandemic has also opened up working-from-home opportunities to many workers. This has caused some people to consider buying a home, whether a condominium or single-family home, rather than staying put in an apartment. And underlying it all is Japan’s ultra-low interest rate environment. The supply and demand conditions have created a situation in which people looking for a new condominium are faced with very low supply and record-high sales prices.
The April 2021 data broke the trend in that average sales prices were lower year-on-year and versus March. However, in 2021 as a whole, greater Tokyo saw historically high sales prices for newly built condominiums. The average sales price in FY2021 was ¥63,600,000 ($490,000 USD), exceeding asset bubble era highs and the highest ever recorded by the Real Estate Economic Research Institute. The average price per square meter was also a record high, at ¥953,000 per square meter.
The contract rate trend is another data line indicating the strength of the market, as seen from the developers’ perspective. The contract rate is the number of units contracted for sale divided by the number of units offered for sale. The 70% mark is considered the dividing line between a seller’s and buyer’s market. The contract rate for greater Tokyo was 75.2% in April and a very strong 82.3% for the Tokyo 23 Wards.
The REEI report covers the greater Tokyo region. This includes the Tokyo 23 Wards, the Tokyo western suburbs, and the prefectures of Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba.
Average Sales Price of an Apartment in Tokyo – By City & Prefecture
Here is the breakdown of average sales prices by area for April 2022 compared to March 2022 and year-on-year.
Average Sales Price Per Square Meter of an Apartment in Tokyo – By City & Prefecture
Here is the breakdown of average sales prices per square meter by area for April 2022 compared to March 2022 and year-on-year.
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REEI, April 2022 Tokyo New Condominium Market Trends Report (PDF in Japanese)
REEI, March 2022 Tokyo New Condominium Market Trends Report (PDF in Japanese)
REEI, April 2021 Tokyo New Condominium Market Trends Report – Corrected Version (PDF in Japanese)
REEI, FY2021 market trends report for newly built condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area (PDF in Japanese)
Lead photo: Tokyo city during the day, via iStock 490942706