The greater Tokyo area new condominium market has recovered lost ground since the start of COVID, with respect to new supply. The first half of the year has also seen strong demand but sales prices dropped year-on-year for the first time in nine years.
These were the key takeaways from the Real Estate Economic Institute‘s (REEI, 不動産経済研究所) 2021 first half (January to June) trends report for the Tokyo capital area new condominium market. The greater Tokyo area consists of Tokyo and the prefectures of Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama. Please see this link for the Kansai area market trends report.
Here are the key takeaways from the 2021 first-half (January to June) year market trend report.
- Supply of new condominiums came in at 13,277 units, a 77.3% year-on-year increase. This was the first YoY increase in three years.
- The first month contract rate was 72.5%, the first time in six years (since 2015) that the contract rate passed the 70% mark.
- The contract rate is the number of units contracted for sale divided by the number of units offered for sale. A contract rate above 70% is said to indicate strong buyer interest relative to supply.
- The average sales price was ¥64,140,000 ($585,000 USD) and the average sales price per square meter was ¥962,000 ($8,768 USD). This was the first time in nine years that both the sale price and price per sqm has dropped YoY.
- The drop in the average sales price and price per square meter in the greater Tokyo area was mainly due to the drop the average sales price in the Tokyo 23 Wards.
- Supply in the second half of the year (July to December) is forecast to come in at about 19,000 units, for an annual supply of about 32,000 units for 2021. Due to strong pullbacks by developers in the wake of the pandemic, supply of new condominiums in 2020 only reached 24,400 units. If 2021 supply reaches the forecast numbers, it will slightly surpass 2019 supply of 31,238 units.
- Supply has recovered in all areas of the Tokyo capital region, compared to levels following the first state-of-emergency.
Breakdown by prefecture
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Source: Tokyo New Condominium Market Trends Report, Jan to June 2021 (PDF in Japanese)
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