Osaka New Apartment Market: 2022 Mid-Year Trend Report

Amidst a depressed supply situation, average sales prices of newly built condominiums in Kansai are up year-on-year, with average sales prices per square meter hitting an all-time high for the January to June period.

The Real Estate Economic Institute’s (REEI) January to June 2022 market trends report for the Kansai region underscores the trends we’ve been tracking in western Japan. Please click here to see the 2022 mid-year market trends report for the greater Tokyo region.

Inventory of new condominiums in Kansai remains well below the level needed to meet buyer demand this year. Coupled with demand-side pressure, low supply will likely keep prices on an upward trend. In addition, macroeconomic factors, especially Japan’s ultra-low interest rate environment and the weak yen are continuing to sustain strong demand.

Here are the key highlights from the REEI’s report for the first half of 2022:

Supply in Kansai fell 13.7% year-on-year

Developers in the Kansai region released 7,225 newly built condominiums for sale in the first half of 2022, down 13.7% year-on-year.

Data for the Kansai region covers Osaka prefecture, the city of Osaka, Hyogo prefecture, the city of Kobe, Kyoto prefecture, the city of Kyoto, and Nara, Shiga, and Wakayama prefectures.

Here is the breakdown of supply by prefecture.

Source: Real Estate Economic Research Institute, Kansai new condominium market trends report for January to June 2022

Year-on-year supply fell in all three of the top three markets, as measured by the number of units available for sale: Osaka, Osaka prefecture and Kobe.

The REEI forecasts that developers will release about 11,000 newly constructed units for sale in the second half of of 2022, compared to 15,780 units for the comparable period in 2021.

That level of supply would mean that 2022 full year supply would come to about 18,000 units for Kansai as a whole, slightly below the number of units offered for sale in 2021 (18,951).

Contract rate

The contract rate for the first half of 2022 also supports the hypothesis that the market remains strong, as sellers continue to have a slight advantage and buyer demand remains strong.

The contract for Kansai as a whole was 71.9%.

The contract rate is the number of units contracted for sale divided by the number of units offered for sale. Seventy percent is considered the dividing line between a seller’s and buyer’s market.

Although the contract rate dropped 1.1 points compared to the same period in 2021, it has remained above the 70% market for 12 consecutive years.

The city of Osaka, in particular, has seen high buyer demand amidst tight supply, with a contract rate of 78.5%.

Source: Real Estate Economic Research Institute, January to June 2022 Kansai new apartment market trends report

Average sales prices per square meter hit an all-time high

The average sales price per square meter of a newly constructed apartment in the Kansai region reached ¥767,000 ($5,758 USD). This is the highest price recorded for the January to June period for any year since 1973, when the REEI started its annual surveys.

The average price per unit sold was also up year-on-year. For the Kansai region as a whole, the average price was ¥45,020,000 ($338,000 USD). This is a year-on-year increase of 3.3% for the period but a decrease of 2.4% if compared to the full-year average price for 2021, of ¥46,120,000.

Here are the average sale prices and sale price per square meter by prefecture:

Source: Real Estate Economic Research Institute, January to June 2022 Kansai new apartment market trends report

Source: Real Estate Economic Research Institute, January to June 2022 Kansai new apartment market trends report

Average Sales Price of an Apartment in Kansai – By City & Prefecture in June

Here is the breakdown of average sales prices by area for June 2022 compared to May 2022 and year-on-year.

Source: REEI, Kansai new condo market report, June 2022

Source: REEI, Kansai new condo market report, June 2022

Source: REEI, Kansai new condo market report, June 2022

Source: REEI, Kansai new condo market report, June 2022


Sources:

  • REEI, Kansai New Condominium Market Trends Report, January to June 2022 (PDF in Japanese)
  • REEI, Kansai New Condominium Market Report, June 2022 (PDF in Japanese)
  • REEI, Kansai New Condominium Market Report, June 2021 (PDF in Japanese)

Photo credit: Kyū-Yodo River in Osaka, iStock/fotoVoyager


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